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The JK Real Estate Calendar

Jay Kaeppel
2026-11-03
The real estate sector has been a dreadful performer in recent years, both on an absolute basis and relative to the overall market. The underlying sector fundamentals appear to remain weak. That said, a four-year cycle calendar has produced a positive result for the real estate sector during each of the last 24 election cycles. Details herein.

Key points:

  • There are many factors that affect the real estate sector in the stock market, including demographics, interest rates, and economic trends
  • Most investors would not be inclined to believe that another useful factor would be the calendar
  • Below I detail my own Real Estate sector calendar. While I do not advocate using it to the exclusion of other factors, it has proven to be useful over a long period of time

The JK Real Estate Calendar

The JK Real Estate Calendar is based around the four-year election cycle, and appears on the table below.

The JK Real Estate Calendar

During blank months, an investor would theoretically stay out of the real estate sector. For example, an investor might buy ticker XLRE on September 30th of this year and prepare to sell it at the close on the last trading day of November. In 2027, one would hold an ETF or fund in January, February, April, June, July, August, and December.

In theory, during the months reading "Real Estate" in the table above, an investor would hold an ETF or mutual fund that tracks the real estate sector in the stock market. The three most routine choices appear in the next table.

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